Every year, in the first month of the season, the Customer Service Department at my site gets inundated with questions about BETTING BASEBALL with me. Let me tell you right now: it is one of the best ways to make money, and one of the simplest forms of handicapping.
I am actually shocked there aren’t more baseball bettors out there, because of the supreme value you get with travel schedule, pitching rotations, run-line plays and even totals! Perhaps it’s the popularity – or lack thereof – since so many people would rather wager on a fast-paced game, such as football and basketball. But guys, money is money, and just like in a stock market, you’re either investing long-term mutual, or on the aggressive risk play. The same applies here.
Now, with the regular season officially getting underway Wednesday, March 28 (3:10 a.m. pacific), with Seattle (Hernandez -130, 7) and Oakland (McCarthy) opening the season in Tokyo, let’s go over some important points you’ll need to consider, or phrases I can define easier for you:
LISTING PITCHERS – I take into account the pitchers in each game, and generally surround my handicapping around the starters. Most times I will tell you to list the pitchers in a baseball game, which basically means you’re making a wager on a game and stating specified hurlers in the event.
If Cliff Lee is facing Justin Verlander, I might tell you to list Lee and Verlander, which means both must start in order for you to have action on the game. If one, or both pitchers don’t start, you have no action and your money will be returned. You can also play a team and list its pitcher, or only choose to list the pitcher your team is opposing. Bottom line, when listing one or both pitchers, whomever is on your ticket must start the game (throw one pitch), in order for you ticket to be valid.
You can also make an ACTION bet, which means regardless of the pitchers who start or play, you’ll have action on the team you’re betting on.
MONEY LINE – Instead of a point spread, we have the Money Line; and this is what you’ll be playing daily – UNLESS IT’S NOTED to play the Run Line. Money Lines are expressed in terms of a dollar. If we’re making a play on the favorite, we’ll be laying more than a dollar in order to win a dollar – the same we lay $1.10 to win a $1 in football and basketball. If we’re playing an underdog, we’re investing one dollar to win a dollar plus the juice. For instance, if a favorite is -1.35, we’ll lay $1.35 to win $1. If we’re betting the underdog in that game, we’d likely be catching +1.25; so we’d lay $1 to win $1.25.
Now, this is very important, as we must discuss Sports Books. I will never tell you where to play, and don’t offer any recommendations on any, but I will tell you this is the most important time of the season to find a quality one, or use multiple ones to shop the prices effectively, as we’re looking for ones offering “Dime Lines.” Here in Vegas, I can get a nickel line at times, but that’s irrelevant.
Notice my example above – a favorite laying $1.35 and the comeback at $1.25. There are some books that will offer a .20-cent line, and you’d only be getting $1.15 for that underdog. You lose value by not knowing these things, so take in consideration your book when signing up. Understandably, at most books, as the price reaches $1,80 or $2.00 with favorites, the come-back price is now a 20-cent line.
RUN LINE – The run line will be used throughout the week in our plays. Here’s where a “point spread” comes in. For instance, if the Tigers are a big favorite with Justin Verlander laying $2.10 to Kevin Slowey on the Money Line, I would be inclined to laying 1-1/2 runs, and reduce the price to +1.05. Quite a difference, right?
The catch is, the Tigers must win by two or more runs. Rarely would we play an underdog +1-1/2, so we won’t get much into that, but the thought process remains the same, as we’d be getting a run and a half, lose by one and still win our bet. There are have been sharps and handicappers known to do this, thinking a pitching duel will end up in a one-run game, but it is not something I am a fan of.
When making a Run Line wager, it will always be based on the pitchers listed at the time the wager is made. If one, or both, of the listed pitchers do not start, there is no action and your money will be returned.
TOTALS – Baseball totals are the same across the board, just as in any sport, as there is a number listed for the game itself, and it applies to the number of runs both teams score in the game. This includes extra innings, when applicable. Both pitchers who are listed at the time the bet is made must start for a total bet to have action. If one, or both, of the listed pitchers do not start, there is no action and your money will be returned. I will have action on totals, not a lot, but more often in baseball than in any other sport will I find value in MLB totals. Many bettors will take into consideration the umpires in handicapping baseball, particularly the totals. I’m not that big on it, though at times I will refer to the home-plate assignment to solidify a big play. For an absolutely great read on handicapping umpires, check out this article by David Payne Purdham.
SYSTEMS – No handicapper might admit to it, but when it comes to baseball, there are some age-old betting systems the late-great Mike Lee used to follow religiously. I love three of them in particular, none of which I’m ready to reveal though, as I work them into my daily lineups quite often. The key to these systems, is they’re profitable from the start of each season. It’s not something you can jump in and out of, as there could be losing streaks with them. Fact is, there’s always losing streaks in sports betting, but you cannot lose focus on the task at hand, and must play accordingly, following the rules of your money management, the sport you’re playing and the system(s) you’re following. This is the main reason I always insist on playing with me for one of two packages – through the All-Star Break, or through the World Series.
Good luck this season, and remember, it’s a very long campaign that can be grueling at times. The ups, the downs, the highs, the lows … it’s an investment, not a hunt-and-peck kind of sport you want to jump in and out of. The prices give us an advantage at times, and that’s where we make our mark.
I follow strict money management guidelines in baseball, so if you’re on board long-term, stick by everything I tell you and follow the ratings.
See ya at the ball field, and don’t forget your Cracker Jacks!