Are you ‘Folking’ kidding me?

Posted: March 17, 2012 in General
Tags: , , , , , , , , , , ,

Let’s start with the obvious: Lehigh, Ohio and Norfolk State.

Get this, pending the prices you might have gotten at different sports books a $100 moneyline parlay on those three underdogs would have returned about $80,000. Not bad for a day at the sports book, right? Well, until I hear different from the Gaming Commission, I’m pretty sure no one was bold enough to make that kind of investment.

We can be sure there are some busted brackets out there. I’ve heard so many analysts and read so many blogs that had all three big-name victims – Duke, Missouri and Michigan – in the Final Four or National Championship. I did have Ohio beating Michigan on my bracket, but didn’t have Lehigh and Norfolk State, though I thought Lehigh could cover that number.

According to a ‘tweet’ by Covers.com Sports, one bettor cashed in on Norfolk State at 45-to-1 odds. A $120 investment resulted in a $5,520 payout – a profit of $5,400. The site reported the LVH SuperBook had the Spartan at +4000 to win outright. Second-seeded

Missouri was a 21-point favorite, and many had the Tigers going to the Final Four. Norfolk State brought an end to that with its 86-84 win. The total was anywhere from 144 to 145, and easily went over.

Overall, by my count and grading of the first-round games – including the First Four, and not including the Louisville-Davidson game (which I’ll touch on in a minute – the underdogs are now 18-15-2, with 14 of the 18 underdogs winning outright. I’m not sure what the TV analysts were talking about after Thursday, saying there weren’t a lot of upsets, but perhaps they need to check the point spreads and ignore the seedings. Though the favorites went 7-6-2 on Thursday, four of those six pups won outright. With the Louisville win over

Davidson, the line was 7.5, and moved to 7 early in the day. It closed at 5 or 5.5, and the Cardinals won by seven. The only winners on that game might have been any sharps who middled the game.

Looking at today’s lines, the tightest spread is with Vanderbilt-Wisconsin, which is a pick at most places, though you could possibly find either team laying a point somewhere along the way. The biggest number is on Kentucky, which is laying 10.5 points to sharp-shooting Iowa State.

Not all of Sunday’s lines were available at post time, due to Friday’s late games, but the ones that were out saw the slimmest number on Florida State, which was laying 2 to Cincinnati. The biggest was with Florida spotting Norfolk State two touchdowns (-14).

I’ll update this blog as the other lines come out.

 

 

HOW’D THOSE COACHES DO – Thursday I broke down some value coaches to look at, based on their records in the opening round, let’s check and see how the did.

WINNERS: Kansas State’s outspoken skipper, Frank Martin, is still perfect, now 4-0 both SU and ATS in his four tournament appearances

Matt Painter’s Purdue knocked off St. Mary’s, and now has a 6-1 ATS record.

North Carolina’s Roy Williams is a perfect 14-0 SU and 8-5-1 ATS.

Gonzaga’s Mark Few improved to 10-3 SU in the first round.

LOSERS: Michigan coach John Beilein, who led the Wolverines to a share of the Big10 regular season championship, blew his perfect 5-0 SU and ATS when the Wolverines lost to Ohio.

Cal’s Mike Montgomery was 8-1 SU heading into the event, but saw his Golden Bears, a Sweet 16 choice of mine, get blasted by South Florida.

I warned you to be careful about betting on Duke’s Coach K, who is now 13-2 SU and 7-8 ATS in the first round.

Kansas’ Bill Self is 11-2 SU but a mediocre 7-5 ATS in the round of 64

Michigan State’s Tom Izzo is 10-4 SU and 8-6 ATS and

West Virginia’s Bobby Huggins was a bust as a suggested moneyline play, and is now 9-4 SU in the first round of the event with teams he’s taken.

FADE WINNERS AND LOSERS: I told you some of the coaches you may want to think about going against in the first round, based on their ATS trends were Connecticut’s Jim Calhoun, Kentucky’s John Calipari and North Carolina State’s Mark Gottfried.

Calhoun was 10-1 SU in this round, and 3-8 at the window, and saw his Huskies lose outright to Iowa State.

Kentucky’s John Calipari had won seven of eight trips to this round – at the helm of Memphis and Kentucky – but his teams had only cashed out three times. Another profitable investment, as the Wildcats won, but did not cover.

Gottfried had only covered the number once in six first-round games, but his Wolfpack got the money in routing San Diego State.

I did suggest a favorite to go against on the moneyline, because its coach couldn’t win. That play was on Temple, as its coach Fran Dunphy went into the game mired in a 1-9 SU and ATS slide in this round. Temple took on South Florida, and got beat down, 58-44.

Also, Wichita State’s Gregg Marshall was 1-6 SU in the round of 64, and ended up getting dismissed by VCU. I told you to look for the Rams at +250 on the moneyline.

QUOTE OF THE DAY – “We tried all week, our coaching staff, explaining to them (the Tigers) how good Norfolk is. Because you don’t see them on TV, the guys don’t know their players. You worry they don’t understand that, ‘hey, these guys are pretty darn good and, you get in a tournament on a neutral court, the fans cheer for the underdog, and that’s what happens.’ ” Missouri coach Frank Haith.

I wonder if the Tigers get the point now.

TODAY’S ACTION  – Wow!

Serves me right for going against my St. Louis Billikens I’ve backed all season. Rick Majerus has his team fine tuned, I’ll give it to him. Well, still up on my book, and today I go for my fourth winning day in five nights as I absolutely love what I see with my 600* Underdog Shocker at ChrisJordanSports.

! ! !  UPSET ALERT  ! ! !

On Monday, I scored with the Milwaukee Bucks as a 600* getting it done in New Jersey against the Nets.

On Tuesday, it was a 300* dog winner on Mississippi Valley State, in a game it should have won outright, but did in fact cover.

On Wednesday, it was my 300* dog winner was on Vermont, an outright pup that beat Lamar by 12 points.

$1 bettors are up $760

I put a majority of that bankroll into action tonight!!!

Yep, nothing more profitable than the madness in March, and I’m the best there is when it comes to making money this time of year. Let’s keep things going with this easy Saturday winner, the best underdog on the board.

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