Bettors move Game 3 from Indiana -1, to Miami -1; Who’s behind line move?

Posted: May 16, 2012 in General, NBA
Tags: , , , , , , , , ,

Only one person inย the sports-betting world has enough power to cause a domino effect with a betting line, and unless he’s the one who’s initiated a line move on Thursday night’s Game 3 between the Miami Heat and the Indiana Pacers, then the public sure hasn’t been keeping an eye on the Pacers the past couple months.

I can’t personally confirm what sports-betting behemoth Billy Walters is doing in the NBA Playoffs – if he’s even still playing, for that matter – but since the public isn’t exactly the type to worry about an NBA Playoff game the night before, there has to be a reason the point spread has moved from the Pacers laying -1 point – or -1-1/2 at some places, to the Heat now laying the single digit.

It really doesn’t make sense, when you look at it, to move the line on a team traveling off a loss and without a key component (Chris Bosh) to your scoring. Especially against a very dangerous basketball team that brings a 25-11 record back home with it.

My opinion, the Pacers seized the opportunity to take control of this series with an outright win in Game 2, in Miami, the overwhelming favorite to win the Eastern Conference now that the Chicago Bulls are out-of-the-way.

The Heat were a decisive favorite over the Pacers, but I’m telling you right now, if you look a little bit deeper into these lineups, you’re going to find this series is a little more even than most would think.

The Pacers may not have the likes of LeBron James, Dwyane Wade or Chris Bosh – who the Heat no longer have either – but they do have a balanced roster that has turned up their noses at everyone who has ignored them as legitimate threats in theย  Eastern Conference.

The aforementioned Big Three for the Heat were the only players on that team to average double figures in points during the regular season. But the Pacers had five players averaging double figures, while George Hill and Tyler Hansbrough were close behind at 9.6 and 9.3 points, respectively. And now that Bosh is unavailable to bang for boards and produce paint points – he was averaging 18 points and 7.9 rebounds per game – I think it poses more of a problem than most South Beach residents would like to believe.

Sure, the underdog in each game of this series might look like a value play, but catching a point or two, after losing the way they did and without a member of the vaunted Big Three… who would want to play the Heat?

Which brings me back to my original statement: Only one person is the sports-betting world has enough power to cause a domino effect with a betting line – and it would be because he’s on a mission and is doing so with a purpose. Walters has been known to trigger those betting dominos, by initiating a little bit of sharp money on the side he’ll eventually play against, as other groups and then the public will follow suit with hopes of catching an assumed-value before it disappears.

I see throughout Vegas, that line moved from Indiana -1, to a pick at some places throughout the morning, anywhere from 8 a.m. to 10 a.m. pacific. But shortly before 11 a.m. Vegas time, someone shot out an order on the Heat, moving the line simultaneously to Miami -1. Offshores pretty much followed suit, for instance, Sportsbook.com went to Pick around 9 a.m. pacific, then Miami -1, about 11 a.m.

Now, with a sophisticated guy like Walters, once he’s seen the money trickling in, and pushing the line where he wants – in this case, possibly, Indiana +1-1/2 or +2 – BAM! He brings in enough to cover his decoy money, and then some, on his actual play right before tip-off of the game.

It’s what makes Walters the best there is.

That all being said, I’m still hopping on one leg back in square one trying to figure out who it was in the first place, because there are some years the sports-betting King has turned off his computers and given his troops the summer off by now.

So what do I know? *Shoulder-shrug*

Guess I’ll be tuned in to my odds page right up toย the 4 p.m., pacific tip-off, to see where the line closes. If it comes back down with an instant, I’m going to smile with a pretty good idea the King hasn’t necessarily left the building – ahem, the books – just yet, for the summer.

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