A detailed ATS look at the Miami Heat’s 27-game win streak from every angle…

Posted: March 26, 2013 in NBA
Tags: , , , , , , ,

So the Miami Heat have won 27 in a row after Monday’s win and cover in Orlando. But as the oddsmakers have to be going through a state of New England Patriotism – how big a favorite do they make the Heat each time out – I think we may have found the right times to bet on or against the defending NBA champions.

Here are some analytical looks as to when to invest in the Miami Heat, and when to bet against them…

First of all, during this 27-0 straight-up (SU) win streak, the Heat are 16-11 against the spread (ATS). At home, they’re 6-8 at the window while cashing in 10 of 13 with a suitcase in hand. That’s not to say they’re always unfocused at American Airlines Arena in South Beach, and more focused on shuffling over to Prime Italian for their after-game meals.

Remember, the oddsmakers are more inclined to put a double digit number on the Heat at home, and as it is, the Heat are just 8-11 as a double-digit favorite this season.

What I did notice, no matter what the point spread has been at home, when the Heat return to Miami they’re 0-4 ATS in their first game back. They’re also 1-3 ATS in their second consecutive game back at home. If the homestand extends past two games, the Heat’s numbers improve, as they’re 2-1 in Game 3, 2-0 in Game 4 and 1-0 in the fifth straight game of a homestand.

On the road, the pyramid flips, as Miami appears to be immediately focused when hitting the highway, with a 3-1 ATS mark in Game 1 of a road trip. The number stays healthy, until Games 4 and 5 of an extended road trip.

The Heat are 3-0 in Game 2 of a junket, 2-0 in Game 3, 2-1 in Game 4 and 0-1 in Game 5.

As for how much rest the best team in basketball might need, the breakdown is as follows:

  • On the second of back-to-back nights: 3-4 ATS
  • Playing on one day’s rest: 11-6 ATS
  • Playing on two day’s rest: 1-1
  • And the five-day rest period over the All-Star break: 1-0

Finally, here is a breakdown of actual point spreads that are in your favor when betting on the Heat, and that work against you:

  • Miami is a perfect 6-0 ATS when laying anywhere from 3′ to 5′ points.
  • Miami is 8-4 ATS when laying a number ranging from 6 to 11 points.
  • Miami sinks to a lowly 2-7 ATS when laying 11′ or more points.

Obviously, when the Heat are playing tougher competition and the number is lower, their stars on the floor longer and covering numbers. When they’re playing mid-range teams that would likely seed 5 through 8 in their respective conference playoffs – pure speculation – they could be up big and coach Erik Spoelstra is pulling his stars late and there might be backdoor covers. And when they’re playing the dregs of the NBA, it’s obvious Spoelstra is taking no chances, his stars playing less time and the Heat are doing what they have to nab the straight-up win.

So, when do the Heat next step on the court and where do all these intangible fall into place?

Miami plays the second of a four-game road trip Wednesday night in Chicago, after one day’s rest. The Heat failed to win or cover -7-1/2 the first time these two played – in Miami on Jan. 4 – and then won and covered the -3-1/2 in Chi-town in the second meeting (2/21).

Based on everything I’ve just broken down for you, and with a guess the line will be about 4 or 4-1/2, I’d lay the points with Miami to make a statement.

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