Betting system on MLB Pitching Debuts have now won two straight, 2-3 overall

Posted: April 15, 2013 in MLB
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Here we are just a couple weeks into the season, and many of the age-old MLB betting systems have had several plays, including one of my favorites – the Major League debut. The idea behind playing a Major League pitcher in his debut start is the oddsmakers are throwing a line out on a young hurler who has never been tested in an official big-league game.

There have been five Major League pitching debuts thus far this season, and after the Pittsburgh Pirates won 10-7 yesterday over the Cincinnati Reds, the system is now 2-3 on the year, showing a small loss of .70 cents on the dollar.

  • April 2 – Hyun-Jin Ryu (Dodgers) -110 vs. Giants – LOSS, 0-3
  • April 4 – Brandon Maurer (Mariners) +155 vs. A’s – LOSS, 2-8
  • April 7 – Jose Fernandez (Marlins) +120 vs. Mets – LOSS, 3-4
  • April 9 – Nick Tepesch (Rangers) -125 vs. Rays – WON, 6-1
  • April 14 – Phil Irwin (Pirates) +140 vs. Reds – WON 10-7

Most first-timers won’t get their first start until after May 1, as there’s been an appropriate amount of time for managers to sort out their lineups and rotations, while also getting their minor-league reports and know who is ready to call up in spot situations.

Personally, I like to think the managers know what they’re doing, much more than the oddsmakers, when it comes to relying on a youngster to win his debut. After all, it’s the big-league skipper who is in constant contact with the pitching coaches and knows the right time for promotion.

The oddsmakers are generally making the rookies a small favorite to an underdog of any size on any given day, but what the smart bettor has to take into consideration is the rookie hurler is embarking on the biggest day of his life and I can tell you the first timers generally do very well over the course of the season.

So while the public bettors are driving the price up on the opposing pitcher, I’m looking for the value with the rookie right up until first pitch. What I really enjoy is seeing one of these first-timers go up against a seasoned veteran, as the big-name hurler usually drenches himself with overconfidence, thinking the game is an easy win. You mix that with the youngster having an extra dose of adrenaline to win his debut, and most times it’s the right ingredients for an underdog win.

The hidden intangibles one might not take into consideration come into play with this system, and we’re generally getting some of the best value we’ll ever get in any of the systems generally played year after year.

So the next time you get antsy looking at a game, and think it looks easy playing against a rookie cause it’s his major-league debut, you might want to take advantage of the value you’re getting with that youngster and take the chance with the kid who has no official major-league scouting report against major-league hitters and that nobody knows about.

Why? Cause more times than not he’s going to shock you.


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