The NFL Draft is in the books, some off-season training is underway and the first wave of “Win Totals” has been posted.
Sure, the season is still four months away, but the good news is: Hey, the season in only four months away!!!
No time like the present to look into some of the win totals for the 2013 campaign, based on numbers posted at the Atlantis sports book in Reno, Nevada. Of course, as we get closer to the season, I’ll look a little deeper into more teams, but for now there’s always the spot play or two to consider.
First, let’s look at what the oddsmakers deem the biggest turnarounds, or collapses. For instance, the Atlanta Falcons went 13-3 last season, but have an over/under total of 10 for next season. Perhaps they think the NFC South will be improved – I know I do – with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers improving their defensive backfield with the addition of Darrelle Revis and the re-signing of Eric Wright, and the New Orleans Saints with Sean Payton back on the sidelines and Rob Ryan resurrecting the defensive unit.
The Saints won just seven games last season, but have a 9.5 posted, and keep in mind the Saints won 11 or more games in each season under Payton from 2009-2011. Oddly, the Bucs also won just seven games, but have a win total of 6.5 – a number I think is a bit low and could have some value. And let’s not forget about the Carolina Panthers, who like the Saints and Bucs were 7-9, and have a win total of 6.5. That’s another total that could be low, as Cam Newton is going to be looking to prove something after his team closed last season by winning five of its final six games.
The biggest differential is the Kansas City Chiefs, who went 2-14 last season but have a 6.5 posted for 2013. Aside from a rugged AFC West schedule, where the Chiefs could very well get swept on the road, and conceivably might only win one at home, against the Oakland Raiders, they also have to play the NFC East. That’s a foursome that could deal four more losses, and with those predictions, the Chiefs would be 1-9. Then there are games at the Jacksonville Jaguars, at the Tennessee Titans, versus the Houston Texans, versus the Cleveland Browns, at the Buffalo Bills and versus the Indianapolis Colts.
Realistically, they should beat the Browns and could possibly pull off wins at Jacksonville and Buffalo. That would make the Chiefs 4-12. Trade out a loss for a win in the season finale against the Colts and you have a 5-11 team, falling a game and a half UNDER that 6.5 win total.
Speaking of the Colts, who went 11-5 last season, they’ve been installed with an 8-win total, yet there are some insiders I’ve spoken with who think they’re going to have another successful campaign. I don’t blame them, with quarterback Andrew Luck coming in after a successful rookie campaign that saw him lose to the eventual Super Bowl champion Baltimore Ravens in the first round of the playoffs. Honestly, the Colts are far too talented to win only eight games and not make a return to the postseason. In fact, they’re far too talented to lose in the opening round this time around. With a solid rushing attack to compliment Luck, you can expect the Colts to go OVER 8 wins.
I have to believe one of the biggest question marks of the season is on the Washington Redskins because of Robert Griffin III’s knee surgery. The rookie suffered a torn ACL and LCL, and while all the reports have been positive of late, I’m not convinced we have another Adrian Peterson situation on our hands. I spoke to one of the leading physical therapists in Las Vegas for perspective on Griffin’s injury, and according to him the second time an athlete has an injury like this you’re looking at a longer recovery time.
“I think the first year he comes back is a tough year,” said Joe Rainone, of Tim Soder Physical Therapy, home to many Las Vegas-based pro athletes. “He’s going to have a hard time with that knee. He’s got to get used to a brand new knee, and not being able to cut on that knee as much as he (used to).
“I think the second surgery definitely has an effect on his longevity.”
Rainone and I got deeper on this subject, and I’ll be releasing a follow-up Blog to this one, with that interview in detail and whether it’s smart to play the ‘Skins over or under 9 wins for 2013.
Here are all the teams in alphabetical order, with their 2012 records in parenthesis, and win totals afterward:
ARIZONA CARDINALS (5-11) 2013 Total: 6 (Over: -110, Under: -120)
ATLANTA FALCONS (13-3) 2013 Total: 10 (Over: -135, Under: +105)
BALTIMORE RAVENS (10-6) 2013 Total: 9.5 (Over: -120, Under: -110)
BUFFALO BILLS (6-10) 2013 Total: 5 (Over: -135, Under: +105)
CAROLINA PANTHERS (7-9) 2013 Total: 6.5 (Over: -130, Under: even)
CHICAGO BEARS (10-6) 2013 Total: 8.5 (Over: -145, Under: +115)
CINCINNATI BENGALS (10-6) 2013 Total: 9 (Over: -115, Under: -115)
CLEVELAND BROWNS (5-11) 2013 Total: 5 (Over: +120, Under: -150)
DALLAS COWBOYS (8-8) 2013 Total: 8.5 (Over: -150, Under: +120)
DENVER BRONCOS (13-3) 2013 Total: 12 (Over: -130, Under: even)
DETROIT LIONS (4-12) 2013 Total: 7 (Over: -115, Under: -115)
GREEN BAY PACKERS (11-5)  2013 Total: 12 (Over: -115, Under: -115)
HOUSTON TEXANS (12-4) 2013 Total: 11 (Over: -140, Under: +110)
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (11-5) 2013 Total: 8 (Over: -150, Under: +120)
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (2-14) 2013 Total: 4.5 (Over: -140, Under: +110)
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (2-14) 2013 Total: 6.5 (Over: -130, Under: even)
MIAMI DOLPHINS (7-9) 2013 Total: 7.5 (Over: -115, Under: -115)
MINNESOTA VIKINGS (10-6) 2013 Total: 7.5 (Over: -115, Under: -115)
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (12-4) 2013 Total: 11.5 (Over: -140, Under: +110)
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (7-9) 2013 Total: 9.5 (Over: -115, Under: -115)
NEW YORK GIANTS (9-7) 2013 Total: 9 (Over: -120, Under: -110)
NEW YORK JETS (6-10) 2013 Total: 7 (Over: -120, Under: -110)
OAKLAND RAIDERS (4-12) 2013 Total: 5.5 (Over: -115, Under: -115)
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (4-12) 2013 Total: 6.5 (Over: -150, Under: +120)
PITTSBURGH STEELERS (8-8) 2013 Total: 10 (Over: -130, Under: even)
ST. LOUIS RAMS (7-8-1) 2013 Total: 8 (Over: -115, Under: -115)
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (7-9) 2013 Total: 7 (Over: even, Under: -130)
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (11-4-1) 2013 Total: 11.5 (Over: -120, Under: -110)
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (11-5) 2013 Total: 11 (Over: -140, Under: +110)
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (7-9) 2013 Total: 6.5 (Over: -115, Under: -115)
TENNESSEE TITANS (6-10) 2013 Total: 6.5 (Over: +110, Under: -140)
WASHINGTON REDSKINS (10-6) 2013 Total: 9 (Over: -110, Under: -120)
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