Posts Tagged ‘Justin Verlander’

With the World Series beginning Wednesday night, much of the debate surrounding who will in Most Valuable Player award doesn’t necessarily have to surround the team the oddsmakers think will win the Fall Classic.

Oddsmakers have put four Detroit Tigers in the top 5 of potential MVPs, led by ace pitcher Justin Verlander, who is a 2-to-1 choice. Behind him is Triple Crown-winner Miguel Cabrera, at 5-1. Then comes San Francisco Giants catcher Buster Poser (6-1), and Detroit’s Prince Fielder (8-1) and Austin Jackson (12-1).

Interestingly, while oddsmakers have made the Tigers’ ace the favorite, not one member of the Giants’ rotation is in the list of names I found, including a resurgent Barry Zito, who has won his last five starts and seven straight decisions.

Zito and Verlander are the starters for Game 1.

Venezuelan Marco Scutaro, who was named MVP of the National League Championship Series, is listed as a 12-1 shot to win the title in the World Series. He tied the league championship series record with 14 hits. He capped his NL Playoff run with three singles and a walk in the Giants’ 9-0 win over the St. Louis Cardinals on Monday night in Game 7 of the NLCS.

Delmon Young, who was selected MVP of the ALCS after batting .353 with two home runs and six RBI for the Detroit Tigers in a four-game sweep of the New York Yankees, is also listed as 12-1 to win World Series MVP honors. Young holds the franchise record with seven postseason homers, all in the past two years.

Here are the current odds from Sportbook.ag:

  • Justin Verlander (Tigers) 2-1
  • Miguel Cabrera (Tigers) 5-1
  • Buster Posey (Giants) 6-1
  • Prince Fielder (Tigers) 8-1
  • Austin Jackson  (Tigers) 12-1
  • Angel Pagan (Giants) 12-1
  • Hunter Pence (Giants) 12-1
  • Pablo Sandoval (Giants) 12-1
  • Marco Scutaro (Giants) 12-1
  • Delmon Young (Tigers) 12-1
  • Alex Avila (Tigers) 15-1
  • Brandon Belt (Giants) 15-1
  • Brandon Crawford (Giants) 15-1
  • Avisail Garcia (Tigers) 15-1
  • Omar Infante (Tigers) 15-1
  • Jhonny Peralta (Tigers) 15-1
  • Field 8-1

For my FREE World Series selection, and value choices for the World Series MVP, be sure to visit the Baseball Free Pick page at Chris Jordan Sports.

Advertisements

Breaking down the best-of-seven American League Championship Series between the Detroit Tigers and New York Yankees:

Schedule: (All times PDT)

Game 1, Saturday, at New York (5:07 p.m.)

Game 2, Sunday, at New York (1:07 p.m.)

Game 3, Tuesday, at Detroit (5:07 p.m.)

Game 4, Wednesday, at Detroit (5:07 p.m.)

x-Game 5, Thursday, at Detroit (1:07 p.m.)

x-Game 6, Saturday, at New York (5:07 p.m.)

x-Game 7, Sunday, at New York (5:15 p.m.)

x-if necessary

 

Projected Lineups:

Tigers: CF Austin Jackson (.300, 16, 66, 10 triples), LF Quintin Berry (.258, 2, 29, 21/21 SBs), 3B Miguel Cabrera (.330, 44, 139 for baseball’s first Triple Crown since 1967), 1B Prince Fielder (.313, 30, 108), DH Delmon Young (.267, 18, 74), RF Andy Dirks (.322, 8, 35), SS Jhonny Peralta (.239, 13, 63), C Alex Avila (.243, 9, 48), 2B Omar Infante (.274, 12, 53 with Marlins and Tigers).

Yankees: SS Derek Jeter (.316, 15 HRs, 58 RBIs, 99 runs, MLB-best 216 hits), LF Ichiro Suzuki (.283, 9, 55, 29 SBs with Mariners and Yankees), 1B Mark Teixeira (.251, 24, 84), 2B Robinson Cano (.313, 33, 94, 48 doubles, 105 runs), DH Raul Ibanez (.240, 19, 62), RF Nick Swisher (.272, 24, 93), CF Curtis Granderson (.232, 43, 106, 195 Ks), C Russell Martin (.211, 21, 53), 3B Eric Chavez (.281, 16, 37 in 278 at-bats) or Eduardo Nunez (.292, 1, 11, 11 SBs, 7 errors in 38 games).

 

Starting Pitchers (in projected rotation order):

Detroit Tigers

RHP Doug Fister (10-10, 3.45)

RHP Anibal Sanchez (9-13, 3.86 with Marlins and Tigers)

RHP Justin Verlander (17-8, 2.64, ML-leading 239 Ks)

RHP Max Scherzer (16-7, 3.74, 231 Ks).

New York Yankees

LHP Andy Pettitte (5-4, 2.87 in 12 starts)

RHP Hiroki Kuroda (16-11, 3.32, 219 2-3 IP)

RHP Phil Hughes (16-13, 4.23, 191 1-3 IP)

LHP CC Sabathia (15-6, 3.38 ERA, 200 IP, 197 Ks).

 

Series Nuggets:

The Yankees won the 2012 series 6-4.

New York has won 40 of the past 58 meetings in the Bronx.

The Yankees won four of seven at Comerica Park in Motown this season.

The Over has cashed in 9 of the last 12 meetings at Yankee Stadium.

 

Detroit Nuggets:

The Tigers beat the Yankees in the division series in 2006 and last year.

Detroit’s starting rotation went 2-1 with a 1.30 ERA in its American League Divisional Series with the Oakland A’s.

In seven starts against the Yankees in 2011 and 2012, playoffs included, ace hurler Justin Verlander is 2-1 with a 3.92 ERA.

Slugger Miguel Cabrera’s run to the Triple Crown took charge on Aug. 1, as he hit .344 with 19 home runs and 54 RBI in 57 games for the remainder of the regular season.

Manager Jim Leyland is making his seventh postseason appearance.

Detroit finished sixth in the American League in runs scored with 726.

The Tigers ranked 10th in the bigs in home runs, with Cabrera and Prince Fielder accounting for more than 45 percent of the team’s 163 homers.

Fielder struggled in the ALDS, hitting just .190 with one home run and two RBI.

Cabrera did no better, hitting a mere .250 with no homers and just one RBI against the Athletics in the ALDS.

 

New York Nuggets:

Ace hurler CC Sabathia was 3-0 in three starts with 20 strikeouts over 21-2/3 innings against Detroit this season.

The Yankees went 19-8 down the stretch to finish two games ahead of the Baltimore Orioles for their 13th division crown in 17 years.

The Yankees, which hit just four home runs in their five-game American League Divisional Series win over the O’s, led the league with 245 home runs this season.

The Bronx Bombers hit a paltry .211 with 47 strikeouts in the ALDS.

Robinson Cano, arguably the team’s best player, his 2-for-22 with an on-base percentage of .130 versus Baltimore in the ALDS.

Others who struggled in the ALDS were Nick Swisher (2-for-18, 5 Ks, .190 OBP), Alex Rodriguez (2-for-16, 9 Ks, .222 OBP), and Curtis Granderson (3-for-19, 9 Ks, .222 OBP).

Game 1 starter Andy Pettitte is baseball’s career leader in postseason wins (19) and starts (43).

Raul Ibanez turned out to be an integral part of the offense, hitting .444 with two homers and three RBI in the ALDS.

First baseman Mark Teixeira’s bat was hot in the ALDS, as he hit .353 versus the O’s. He had no homers and just one RBI, so they’ll be looking for his power in this series.


Every year, in the first month of the season, the Customer Service Department at my site gets inundated with questions about BETTING BASEBALL with me. Let me tell you right now: it is one of the best ways to make money, and one of the simplest forms of handicapping.

I am actually shocked there aren’t more baseball bettors out there, because of the supreme value you get with travel schedule, pitching rotations, run-line plays and even totals! Perhaps it’s the popularity – or lack thereof – since so many people would rather wager on a fast-paced game, such as football and basketball. But guys, money is money, and just like in a stock market, you’re either investing long-term mutual, or on the aggressive risk play. The same applies here.

Now, with the regular season officially getting underway Wednesday, March 28 (3:10 a.m. pacific), with Seattle (Hernandez -130, 7) and Oakland (McCarthy) opening the season in Tokyo, let’s go over some important points you’ll need to consider, or phrases I can define easier for you:

LISTING PITCHERS – I take into account the pitchers in each game, and generally surround my handicapping around the starters. Most times I will tell you to list the pitchers in a baseball game, which basically means you’re making a wager on a game and stating specified hurlers in the event.

If Cliff Lee is facing Justin Verlander, I might tell you to list Lee and Verlander, which means both must start in order for you to have action on the game. If one, or both pitchers don’t start, you have no action and your money will be returned. You can also play a team and list its pitcher, or only choose to list the pitcher your team is opposing. Bottom line, when listing one or both pitchers, whomever is on your ticket must start the game (throw one pitch), in order for you ticket to be valid.

You can also make an ACTION bet, which means regardless of the pitchers who start or play, you’ll have action on the team you’re betting on.

MONEY LINE – Instead of a point spread, we have the Money Line; and this is what you’ll be playing daily – UNLESS IT’S NOTED to play the Run Line. Money Lines are expressed in terms of a dollar. If we’re making a play on the favorite, we’ll be laying more than a dollar in order to win a dollar – the same we lay $1.10 to win a $1 in football and basketball. If we’re playing an underdog, we’re investing one dollar to win a dollar plus the juice. For instance, if a favorite is -1.35, we’ll lay $1.35 to win $1. If we’re betting the underdog in that game, we’d likely be catching +1.25; so we’d lay $1 to win $1.25.

Now, this is very important, as we must discuss Sports Books. I will never tell you where to play, and don’t offer any recommendations on any, but I will tell you this is the most important time of the season to find a quality one, or use multiple ones to shop the prices effectively, as we’re looking for ones offering “Dime Lines.” Here in Vegas, I can get a nickel line at times, but that’s irrelevant.

Notice my example above – a favorite laying $1.35 and the comeback at $1.25. There are some books that will offer a .20-cent line, and you’d only be getting $1.15 for that underdog. You lose value by not knowing these things, so take in consideration your book when signing up. Understandably, at most books, as the price reaches $1,80 or $2.00 with favorites, the come-back price is now a 20-cent line.

RUN LINE – The run line will be used throughout the week in our plays. Here’s where a “point spread” comes in. For instance, if the Tigers are a big favorite with Justin Verlander laying $2.10 to Kevin Slowey on the Money Line, I would be inclined to laying 1-1/2 runs, and reduce the price to +1.05. Quite a difference, right?

The catch is, the Tigers must win by two or more runs. Rarely would we play an underdog +1-1/2, so we won’t get much into that, but the thought process remains the same, as we’d be getting a run and a half, lose by one and still win our bet. There are have been sharps and handicappers known to do this, thinking a pitching duel will end up in a one-run game, but it is not something I am a fan of.

When making a Run Line wager, it will always be based on the pitchers listed at the time the wager is made. If one, or both, of the listed pitchers do not start, there is no action and your money will be returned.

TOTALS – Baseball totals are the same across the board, just as in any sport, as there is a number listed for the game itself, and it applies to the number of runs both teams score in the game. This includes extra innings, when applicable. Both pitchers who are listed at the time the bet is made must start for a total bet to have action. If one, or both, of the listed pitchers do not start, there is no action and your money will be returned. I will have action on totals, not a lot, but more often in baseball than in any other sport will I find value in MLB totals. Many bettors will take into consideration the umpires in handicapping baseball, particularly the totals. I’m not that big on it, though at times I will refer to the home-plate assignment to solidify a big play. For an absolutely great read on handicapping umpires, check out this article by David Payne Purdham.

SYSTEMS – No handicapper might admit to it, but when it comes to baseball, there are some age-old betting systems the late-great Mike Lee used to follow religiously. I love three of them in particular, none of which I’m ready to reveal though, as I work them into my daily lineups quite often. The key to these systems, is they’re profitable from the start of each season. It’s not something you can jump in and out of, as there could be losing streaks with them. Fact is, there’s always losing streaks in sports betting, but you cannot lose focus on the task at hand, and must play accordingly, following the rules of your money management, the sport you’re playing and the system(s) you’re following. This is the main reason I always insist on playing with me for one of two packages – through the All-Star Break, or through the World Series.

Good luck this season, and remember, it’s a very long campaign that can be grueling at times. The ups, the downs, the highs, the lows … it’s an investment, not a hunt-and-peck kind of sport you want to jump in and out of. The prices give us an advantage at times, and that’s where we make our mark.

I follow strict money management guidelines in baseball, so if you’re on board long-term, stick by everything I tell you and follow the ratings.

See ya at the ball field, and don’t forget your Cracker Jacks!